Thursday, January 29, 2015

4 Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Rocket Stocks for a Santa Claus Rally

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume today.

Hain Celestial Group

Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) manufactures, markets, distributes and sells natural and organic products. Its product portfolio includes grocery, snacks, tea and personal care products. This stock closed up 2.2% to $89.32 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 6.-3 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 559,439

Volume % Change: 1057%

From a technical perspective, HAIN trended modestly higher here with monster upside volume. This move pushed shares of HAIN into breakout and new 52-week high territory, after the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance at $88.36. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if HAIN manages to take out Monday's intraday high of $89.40 with strong volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in HAIN as long as it's trending above Monday's low of $87.36 or above $86 and then once it sustains a move or close above $89.40 with volume that hits near or above 559,439 shares. If we get that move soon, then HAIN will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $95 to $100.

Regency Energy Partners

Regency Energy Partners (RGP) is engaged in the gathering, processing, contract compression, marketing and transportation of natural gas and the transportation, fractionation and storage of NGLs. This stock closed up 7.7% at $26.07 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 2.30 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 650,617

Volume % Change: 295%

From a technical perspective, RGP soared higher here back above both its 50-day moving average at $24.83 and its 200-day moving average at $25.59 with strong upside volume. This move pushed shares of RGP out of its sideways consolidation pattern, which had the stock moving between $24 and $26 over the last few months. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term of RGP manages to take out Monday's intraday high of $27.21 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in RGP as long as it's trending above its 200-day at $25.59 or above its 50-day at $24.83 and then once it sustains a move or close above $27.21 with volume that's near or above 650,617 shares. If we get that move soon, then RGP will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at $28.99 to its 52-week high at $29.52. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give RGP a chance to trend north of $30.

A. Schulman

A. Schulman (SHLM) supplies plastic compounds, resins and engineered plastics. This stock closed up 1.2% at $34.57 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 264,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 104,172

Volume % Change: 110%

From a technical perspective, SHLM spiked modestly higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $33.33 with above-average volume. This move briefly pushed shares of SHLM into breakout and new 52-week high territory, since the stock flirted with some key overhead resistance levels at $34.64 to $34.83. Shares of SHLM managed to close below its intraday high of $34.99 and below those breakout levels with the stock finishing the day at $34.57. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if SHLM manages to take out Monday's intraday high of $34.99 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SHLM as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $33.33 or above more near-term support at $32.54 and then once it sustains a move or close above $34.99 with volume that's near or above 104,172 shares. If we get that move soon, then SHLM will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $40 to $43.

Spartan Stores

Spartan Stores (SPTN) is a regional grocery distributor and grocery retailer, operating in Michigan and Indian. This stock closed up 1% at $24.08 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 293,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 133,561

Volume % Change: 125%

From a technical perspective, SPTN trended modestly higher here and broke out above some near-term overhead resistance at $23.79 with above-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of SPTN within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if SPTN manages to take out some key overhead resistance levels at $24.40 to its 52-week high at $24.78 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SPTN as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $23.29 or above more near-term support at $22 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 133,561 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then SPTN will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $30 to $33.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>3 Biotech Stocks Spiking on Big Volume



>>5 Stocks Poised for Breakouts



>>4 Big Stocks on Traders' Radars

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Gladys Edmunds: Dealing with distractions

Hi, Gladys, I am at the end of my rope. Last year I started a home-based business and every possible obstacle keeps getting in my way. I can't seem to concentrate on my business. I don't have small children at home and I am a widow, so there is no one living here to bother me. The problem is the outside interferences. I have had to cancel three appointments with possible new clients because of an emergency that my best friend had. On another occasion my car wouldn't start. I was all set to work the other day only to discover that the furnace was not working so I spent my day dealing with that. The furnace man ended up calling the gas company to check things out and the gas company found a leak and red tagged my furnace. I had to have my front yard dug up and a new gas line put in. Needless to say my nerves are shattered. How do I handle all of life's issues and concentrate on my business at the same time? Thanks, C.L.

There are some things in life that we just can't explain; your car and furnace would fall under that category. The other things – your car and helping with a friend's emergency -- are another matter.

Why did you allow your car to stress you out? There are alternative ways to reach destinations other than driving your car. As for the emergency that your friend had, only you can say how important or necessary your help was in that case. Self-inquisition can help you to get to know yourself better and will reveal why you are letting things come between you and your business.

The philosopher Socrates was famous for his "know thyself" approach to life. He spent his life talking to himself, asking questions, and seeking better and more truthful answers. He and the Socratic philosophers who came after him believed that the meaning of life involved the ability of man to know himself.

What I have found to be helpful in getting to know yourself better is to write about the things that are bothering you and ask yourself why you are doing what you do. In other w! ords it's like interviewing yourself. Writing the things that are blocking your progress gives you something to review and note the progress that you've made in overcoming them. Write the question: Why did I allow my friend's problem to stop me from doing my work? And then begin to answer yourself in writing. Don't accept the first answer that comes up. Continue to ask yourself the "Why," throughout and keep writing until you feel a breakthrough.

Putting our fears and problems on paper helps us to face them better and find solutions. As long as they are tucked away inside it is easy to bury them or hide from them.

So bring these issues out into the open by writing them down. And you will find that when you face situations in this way you stand a good chance of removing problems and solving situations much easier.

Gladys Edmunds, founder of Edmunds Travel Consultants in Pittsburgh, is an author and coach/consultant in business development. Her column appears Wednesdays. E-mail her at gladys@gladysedmunds.com. An archive of her columns is here. Her website is gladysedmunds.com.

What's Behind Those Odd September Jobs Numbers

If you still needed confirmation this is the slowest economic recovery in history, you need look no further than today's (Tuesday's) September jobs report.

Total non-farm employment in the United States rose 148,000 in September, a soft number well short of the 180,000 expected. The unemployment rate itself fell to 7.2% - the lowest it's been since U.S. President Barack Obama took office.

But 7.2% is just U-3, the official measure of unemployment. If we include discouraged workers - unemployed people who gave a job market-related reason for not looking for work - the rate (U-4) rises to 7.7%. If we include the "marginally attached" and persons employed part-time for economic reasons (U-6), the unemployment rate shoots to a European-like level of 13.6%.

In other words, approximately 21 million otherwise able Americans are underemployed, or unemployed, or have just given up looking for work because the job market looks so bleak.

And there's more bad news...

September Jobs Report: Twisted Numbers

According to Zero Hedge's analysis of the full-time and part-time numbers, "the US work force saw the rotation of some 594K part-time workers into a whopping 691K full-time jobs, in addition to adding over 100K net new jobs in the month."

Here's what they mean: The August household survey reported 116,208,000 persons employed full time and 27,999,000 persons employed part time. The September survey reported 116,899,000 persons employed full time, and 27,405,000 persons employed part time, changes of 691,000 and 594,000 respectively.

That seems impossible - and makes the jobs numbers even more unreliable than they already were.

Also, under Bureau of Labor Statistics definitions, "full time" employment does not necessarily mean a 40-hour-a-week job with benefits. Instead, it simply means that a person usually works more than 35 hours a week, regardless of the number of jobs they work.

Zero Hedge suggests the strange data could be a response to July's outsized growth in part-time jobs as a portion of the total jobs created. As Money Morning and others pointed out with the July numbers, only 35% of the jobs reported as created were full-time.

At the time, massive growth in part-time employment was attributed to employer fears surrounding Obamacare, which requires employers with more than 50 full-time employees to purchase insurance for them or face fines.

The jobs report makes it seem as though a large number of erstwhile part-time jobs have somehow become full-time - which is why we took a closer look at where these full-time jobs came from...

It's Only Temporary

The top industry gainers for September were government (22,000 jobs), retail (20,000 jobs), transportation and warehousing (23,000 jobs), and administrative support services (24,000 jobs). Together, they account for around 60% of the new jobs created.

On their own, these seem like sound categories for growth - although we have to wonder why state governments were increasing their payrolls amid all the worry about shutdown. (The federal government shed some jobs.)

Retail might indicate some consumer resurgence, with about 20,000 new jobs added. The two largest gainers were in food and beverage stores and a vague category called "general merchandise stores."

"Transportation and warehousing" could have been a bright spot in the jobs report if it meant increased freight traffic. Sadly, almost all of the job growth came from transit and passenger ground travel: buses, trains, and taxis.

But it's the last category that should worry you the most.

The increase in "administrative services" comes almost entirely from temporary employees. Hiring a temp means that an organization has more work than it can immediately handle, but also has an uncertain outlook. Furthermore, temps are usually hired on a term basis and can hardly be considered full-time employees, even if they work a 40-hour week.

Part time America seems to be alive and well.

Monday, January 26, 2015

Jobless claims’ plunge may signal better days

A plunge in jobless claims is raising hopes that the job market is picking up faster than was believed even a few weeks ago.

The latest news was Thursday's report that states received 305,000 new claims for unemployment insurance last week, down from 367,000 at this time last year, and the lowest in more than six years.

Claims had been falling to very low levels for three weeks, but the Labor Department had previously chalked part of the drop up to computer problems in a couple of states that delayed reporting of new claims.

With officials saying Thursday that the computers are fixed, economists are grappling with what happens next, now that the numbers are real.

"The best indicator of the monthly employment report is weekly jobless claims,'' Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi economist Chris Rupkey wrote in a note to clients. "It looks like the labor market kicked it up a notch in September. We will see what the monthly jobs report says next Friday, but 305,000 means a monster jobs number is out there on the horizon somewhere. It's coming. Bigger than 200,000 or a big 0.2 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate.''

That would reverse the trend of recent months, which has seen job growth slip even as the unemployment rate has drifted to a post-recession low of 7.3%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported an average of 148,000 new jobs for each of the last three months, compared with more than 224,000 for the three months ending in April.

Barclays raised its estimate of new jobs created in September to 210,000 after the claims report. Brian Wesbury of First Trust Advisors also predicts 210,000 new jobs, the best gain in seven months, while Joel Naroff, of Naroff Economic Advisors, is at 223,000.

Fewer unemployment insurance claims prove that layoffs are slowing, and strongly suggest that hiring is also picking up, Naroff said. The normal pace of firings and failing companies in a 155 million-worker economy would produce more unemployment claims unless pe! ople were being hired so quickly, they never filed for benefits, he argued.

The optimism comes as a number of economic indicators, which ordinarily would help determine the pace of hiring, showed continued signs of sluggishness. The specter of a government shutdown or congressional refusal to raise the federal debt ceiling next month, raising the outside chance of a first-ever U.S. bond default, is a wild card, economists cautioned.

The economy grew at a 2.5% annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. That was 0.1% below the expected rate, and early third-quarter data point to only 1.3% growth, according to Moody's Analytics. It forecasts 160,000 new jobs for September.

The new optimism would vanish if Congress and President Obama hit an impasse on the budget, Naroff said.

"I always put that caveat in because I don't trust the crazies,'' he said.

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Tiffany Raises Outlook, Looks to Post All-Time High

Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) reported second-quarter results before markets opened Tuesday morning. The luxury goods company posted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.83 on revenues of $926 million. In the same period a year ago, Tiffany reported EPS of $0.72 on revenue of $886.57 million. Second-quarter results also compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $0.74 and $941.37 million in revenue.

The company's Asia-Pacific region total sales jumped 20% year-over-year to $208 million, with same-store sales up 13% in the quarter. Sales in the European region were up 11% to $111 million, and same-store sales were up 7%. In the Americas, sales rose 2% to $444 million, and same-store sales were flat.

Tiffany raised its full-year EPS guidance from a previous range of $3.43 to $3.53 to a new range of $3.50 to $3.60. The company expects operating profits to rise faster than sales, gross margins to be flat with last year and expenses to be lower. The forecast excludes $0.05 per share in first-quarter cost reduction charges.

The company's CEO said:

Total sales growth met our objective due to solid performance in most regions, and with particular strength in our statement and fine jewelry product categories. … Looking forward, we are equally excited about the initiatives we are pursuing in product development, marketing communications and store expansion, all intended to further enhance Tiffany's strong brand position and take fuller advantage of its long-term growth opportunities in the global luxury market.

The company's worldwide net sales rose 4%, but excluding currency exchange effects sales would have risen 8%. That is a big bite, and it could get bigger as the company continues to expand in Asia. Overall, though, Tiffany had a solid quarter and expects a good second half of the year.

Shares are up about 2.3% in premarket trading Tuesday morning, at $83.56 in a 52-week range of $55.83 to $82.84, so Tiffany is set to post a new 52-week high. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $82.90 before today's results were announced.

Saturday, January 24, 2015

4 Tips to Help 30-Somethings Manage Their Debt

Woman checking billsPeter Dazeley, Getty Images No matter what our age, we all have to be careful about the level of debt we hold, but for those in their 30s, managing debt can be especially challenging. According to the most recent data from the Census Bureau, those ages 35 to 44 have the highest levels of household debt of any age group; their $108,000 in median debt weighs in 25 percent higher than the next most indebted age group. Increasingly, student loan debt represents a big portion of overall debt for 30-somethings. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study showed average student loan balances for those ages 30 to 39 topped those of other age groups, approaching the $30,000 mark as of the end of 2012. It all adds up to an increasingly difficult financial balancing act. Even as their incomes begin to grow as their careers take root, 30-somethings are also in the highest-consumption phase of their lives, as they start families, consider buying a home for the first time or upgrading to a more family-friendly home, and improving their lifestyles as their incomes improve. Debt is a necessary part of meeting those challenges, but you have to handle it correctly. Let's take a look at four tips for those in their 30s to keep control of debt and use it to your advantage. 1. Don't Let Dealing With Debt Derail Other Financial Demands. Between student loan debt from your 20s and other types of debt you incur for vital purchases, you need to accept that you won't be able to pay down your debt by the time you're 40. But debt doesn't always mean avoiding debt entirely. Once you take care of the most onerous and burdensome types of debt, it's also important to start funneling money to other long-term financial needs. Saving for your own retirement as well as your children's future expenses if you choose to have a family can give you an important head start that will make it a lot easier to manage your overall finances in the future. 2. Avoid Dumb Credit-Record Dings. By the time you hit 30, you'll likely already have a well-established credit history. As your prospects improve, it's essential to have your credit score improve along with them. That means not making silly mistakes like having late payments or excessive balances on credit cards and other revolving debt. By diligently checking your credit reports through annualcreditreport.com, the free online service that the government requires major credit reporting agencies to provide, you can correct any mistakes that slip through and see the impact smart decisions can have on your credit rating. That will make it easier to get the loans you need on the best possible terms. 3. Be Tax-Smart About Debt. As your income rises, the benefits of tax breaks on certain types of debt also increase. In particular, most mortgage interest qualifies for an itemized tax deduction, reducing your after-tax financing costs even further from the generally low rates on mortgages. Similar tax breaks are sometimes available for student loans and investment interest expense, so be sure to check whether your loans qualify and, if so, how the tax break factors into your decision of whether to pay them off quickly or more slowly. 4. Get Rid of Credit Card Debt Entirely. Finally, if there's one attainable goal to strive for by the time you hit 40, it's to eliminate credit card debt from your finances entirely. With high interest rates and draconian fees, the cost of carrying balances on credit cards is greater than with most other types of loans. The interest you save by paying down card balances and then paying off future charges every month is greater than the return on nearly any investment you could make. And best of all, it's a sure thing. In addition, getting credit card debt defeated will give you the confidence to tackle the rest of your debt picture as well.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Microsoft and Nokia Have a Long Way to Go

Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) expensive investment and Nokia's (NYSE: NOK  ) risky gamble appear to be paying off.

Kantar is out with its smartphone domestic market share report for the second quarter, and after conducting more than 240,000 interviews in this country, it appears as if Windows Phone is gaining ground as a mobile operating system.

Hold your applause.

We're only talking about Windows going from 2.9% a year ago to 4% today. This remains a country where Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) Android and Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) iPhone command a whopping 94% of the market.

In fact, Microsoft's growth hasn't really come at the expense of Google or Apple. They combined for just 91.8% in market share a year ago, so clearly the two market leaders are even more popular today. Microsoft's growing at the expense of BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY  ) , which has seen its stateside market share shrink from 4% to 1.1% over the past year.

Yes, Microsoft's share of smartphone sales during the last three months is the same as BlackBerry's land grab during the same three months of 2012. That's not very encouraging, but then you have to keep in mind that Windows Phone is on the rise. BlackBerry has given us little reason to make it seem as if it's not a platform on the way out.

When Microsoft and Nokia teamed up to champion Windows Phone through Nokia's Lumia line, it was a brazen move. Microsoft would offer up billions in guarantees to Nokia, and the Finnish handset maker would throw its weight behind a fledgling mobile platform instead of joining Samsung in putting out a ton of Android devices.

Nokia's stock has taken a beating as sales haven't been up to snuff, and even Microsoft slumped after posting uninspiring financial results earlier this month. Clearly both companies have a long way to go if they want to be taken seriously in the smartphone market, but at least they're taking baby steps in the right direction.

Our digital and technological lives are almost entirely shaped by just a handful of companies -- and Microsoft's one of them. Find out "Who Will Win the War Between the 5 Biggest Tech Stocks?" in The Motley Fool's latest free report, which details the knock-down, drag-out battle being waged by the five kings of tech. Click here to keep reading.

What I Learned From The Greatest Stock Speculator In History

In this modern age of instant market access, high-frequency trading and real-time news, there really is nothing new under the sun.

The stock market still goes up and goes down, investors still make and lose money, and the basic market dynamics between a buyer and a seller remain the same. Many market lessons taught a century ago still ring true today.

One of the most influential and successful stock market speculators of all time is the legendary Jesse Livermore. Many lessons can be learned from both his successes and failures, which were epic in scale. He made and lost several fortunes over his career, and his life ended tragically.

 

Livermore was keenly aware of his own shortcomings. Although this knowledge wasn't enough to save him, the wisdom he shared with the world is as much worth heeding today as it has ever been. Let's take a closer look at the man once called the "Speculator King" and one of his powerful investing strategies.

Fortunes Won, Fortunes Lost
Jesse Livermore's dad wanted him to be a farmer, but this born investor knew from a very early age that his calling was the stock market. After he left home at 14, his mathematical ability and love for the market landed him a job as a quotation changer at a stockbroker's office in Boston. He started dabbling in the market by risking his salary in the off-exchange stock-trading parlors known as bucket shops. Think of modern-day off-track betting facilities -- but stock prices, rather than horses, are used as betting tools. His math-oriented brain quickly began to discern repeating patterns in the stock prices.

     
   
  Jesse Livermore is one of the most influential and successful stock market speculators of all time.  

By the time Livermore was 21, this skill had earned him enough money to move to New York City, where this young financial wizard turned his full attention to the legitimate markets. Quickly building a reputation as a master stock trader, he earned around $3 million shorting stocks during the 1907 crash. 

Despite his success, he was forced to declare bankruptcy after losing 90% of the $3 million he made during the 1907 crash. This was mostly due to a single trade in cotton in which he broke his personal investing rules by continuing to buy the commodity as it was dropping in price.

Starting again with a greatly diminished portfolio, he was able to ride the World War I-driven bull market to another large trading stake. His legendary status was cemented when he successfully shorted stocks during the great crash of 1929, earning over $100 million.

Although he had great success, he also had his demons. Being married three times -- the third to a woman whose previous four husbands had committed suicide -- clearly shows a personal life in serious disarray.

By 1934, this once-mighty fixture of the financial markets was broke again, and his membership to the Chicago Board of Trade was automatically revoked due to lack of capital.   

Finally, in 1940, a lifelong battle with depression ended in his suicide in a coatroom at a New York hotel. Despite claiming to be completely broke, this investment wizard is said to have left $5 million in cash and trusts at his death. Much more important than his money, however, is the timeless wisdom Livermore left for all investors.

The Most Important Rule
Today, 73 years after his death, investors still follow the investing wisdom he left for the ages in his book "How to Trade in Stocks," as well as in "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator," a fictionalized account of his life. I strongly recommend these books to anyone interested in the building blocks of investing.

The primary lesson I learned from Livermore's writings is simple yet profound. He taught to look for obvious trends in price, set a price level on the chart (which he called pivot points), then buy or sell the stock depending on how price acted once it hits the pivot point.

Pivot points are the same thing as the support and resistance levels that I talk about in my articles. In fact, Livermore's idea on how to trade pivot points has had a profound influence on the way I approach the market. It is the basic idea behind my Channel System for entering trades and longer-term investments. This tactic, although perhaps older than Livermore himself, still continues to be a steady source of profits for many traders. 

Here's how it works: Imagine a stock's pivot point to be at $25. Once price hits $25 on the way up, you wait for price to break through the line for a certain number of ticks. You could wait for price to hit $25.50 then enter your position long. On the other hand, if price hits the $25 pivot or resistance point and starts falling, you would enter short at $24.50 in the anticipation that the down move will continue.

Livermore's investing tactic is the building block of multiple different strategies. Here is an example using Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD). 

Livermore likely would have seen a pivot point in the double bottom formed in March and April. He would have entered on the bounce off this level, potentially doubling his money. The current pivot point/support level is at $2.80. Livermore would probably wait for the bounce to be confirmed at $3 prior to entering the trade.

Risks to Consider: Just because you are using the same pivot points that you believe Jesse Livermore would have used is in no way a guarantee of profits. Remember, prices can do anything, regardless of pivot points. Money management rules are the key to making the system work. Livermore was a huge proponent of letting winners run and cutting losses. If prices move against your position after you enter a trade based on a pivot point, close the position after the support or resistance at the original pivot point fails. You can always re-enter the trade later.

Action to Take --> Make it a point to read Livermore's books and try to incorporate his ideas into your investment philosophy. I elaborated on just one of his trading tactics -- his books delve into many more. There are many life lessons, positive and negative alike, to learn from his experience. Livermore said that every time he failed, it was because he broke his own rules. Take this wisdom to heart.

P.S. -- Have you ever thought about trading but were afraid to try? It's easier than you think. In fact, using only a couple of simple tools, one StreetAuthority Analyst has discovered a technique that would've turned $100,000 into $670,613 in the past 10 years -- a 570.6% gain. Simply put, this research could dramatically change the way you invest and lead to more money made in the stock market than ever before. Go here to learn the details.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Court Upholds Myriad Genetics' Patent Claim

In a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision, a patent claim involving Myriad Genetics' (NASDAQ: MYGN  ) complementary DNA, or cDNA, has been upheld, according to a company announcement. In addition to Myriad's patent victory, however, five of its isolated DNA-related claims were denied by the court.

While not at issue in the Supreme Court's ruling, Myriad stated the Supreme Court also noted its BRCA 1 and BRCA 2 as method claims, supporting an earlier circuit court statement that said, "As the first party with knowledge of the [BRCA1 and BRCA2] sequences, Myriad was in an excellent position to claim applications to that knowledge." Myriad's BRACAnalysis testing has been utilized "by more than a million women" to determine a patient's risk of contracting ovarian and breast cancer, according to the statement.

Regarding the court's decision to uphold its cDNA claim, and reinforce the method claims relating to BRCA 1 and BRCA 2, Myriad president and CEO Peter Meldrum said the ruling, "underscored the patent eligibility of our method claims, ensuring strong intellectual property protection for our BRACAnalysis test moving forward."

Why Bank of America Might Lose at This Important Hearing

This is the week that the fate of a distinctly unsettled prior settlement between Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) and 22 institutional investors gets put to the test in the courtroom of New York State Supreme Court Justice Barbara Kapnick. At issue is a New York law called Article 77, which will be used to answer the question of whether or not Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BNY  ) , as trustee for the settlement, acted reasonably in accepting the terms on behalf of the complainants.

Certainly, the $8.5 billion settlement amount is big enough to worry about all on its own, but there is another issue here, and for Bank of America, it's huge: Does B of A have successor liability for the bad behavior of Countrywide?

Intertwined with the Article 77 matter
It's a valid question, and it is considered germane to whether BONY acted in a reasonable manner pursuant to the settlement. As BTIG's Mark Palmer has noted, the pact was based upon the notion that B of A did not have successor liability, so revisiting that particular point might throw the whole deal out the window, and cause B of A lots of anguish -- both now and in the future.

Of course, as Alison Frankel muses, Kapnick could take the path of least resistance and endorse the settlement. This would save both B of A and BONY a big hassle, and prevent everybody from having to go back to the starting gate.

But, it probably won't be that easy. The question of successor liability by B of A for Countrywide has come up before, in the recently settled battle between the bank and monoline insurer MBIA (NYSE: MBI  ) . Earlier this year, the insurer filed with the New York courts a very long and colorful presentation in its bid to win summary judgment on this very issue. Despite its effort, however, New York State Supreme Court Justice Eileen Bransten wouldn't rule either for or against the question, citing disputed facts that needed more scrutiny. But, in a blow to Bank of America, she did decide that the successor liability issue should be heard in New York, rather than Delaware, which was B of A's preferred venue.

NY AG's case seems to favor a loss for B of A
Kapnick could still decide that there is no such liability on Bank of America's part toward Countrywide, but she would be going up against the Attorney General of New York, who last year filed suit against B of A for $1 billion in damages regarding substandard loans Countrywide sold Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac several years ago.

In the complaint filed in the so-called "Hustle" case, U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara outlines how the state of New York considers Bank of America to be liable for this shoddy behavior -- both as a direct participant, and as the successor to Countrywide. Preet alleges that the two entities engaged in a de facto merger, much as MBIA had -- at least, according to New York law. And, that's what counts at this point.

Will Kapnick approve the settlement without going into all these issues? In its motion to have the Hustle suit dismissed, B of A argued only that the AG's office hadn't proved fraud. For obvious reasons, the question of the bank's responsibility for Countrywide's abuses is one can of worms that B of A would rather not open.

Many investors are scared about investing in big banking stocks after the crash, but the sector has one notable stand out. In a sea of mismanaged and dangerous peers, it stands out as The Only Big Bank Built To Last. You can uncover the top pick that Warren Buffett loves in The Motley Fool's new report. It's free, so click here to access it now.

Monday, January 19, 2015

Textron: Flying High

Textron (TXT) is flying after the maker of Cessna airplanes and Bell helicopters reported stronger-than-expected earnings that’s also given a boost to other aircraft stocks including Spirit AeroSystem (SPR), Boeing (BA) and Embarer (ERJ).

Textron reported an adjusted profit of 60 cents a share, easily topping forecasts for 53 cents, although sales came in below expectations. Textron also increased its full-year earnings guidance to a range of $2.05 to $2.15 a share. The beat was driven by a pickup in margins, which came in at 8.5%m ahead of forecasts for 8.0%.

A Cessna 414

RBC Capital Markets’ Robert Stallard said Textron had an “overall solid quarter.” He explains:

Systems ‘underperformance’ isn’t necessarily surprising given what is still some uncertainty in defense, while we’d like to get a better understanding of the mix issues in Industrial. The improvement in margin in Aviation is encouraging, especially given that margin expansion in this segment is one of the main drivers of profit growth over the next several years. Given the usual seasonal weakness in Aviation in 3Q, we think this result should be well received.

That’s an understatement, as Textron’s shares have jumped 9.8% to $36.97, and have helped lift Spirit AeroSystems 3.4% to $36.66, Boeing 2.4% to $123.26 and Embraer 3.1% to $36.18. Still, Nomura’s Jonathan Wright worries that not everything is right with Textron:

While a solid EPS beat, we are concerned that some of the negative trends that we highlighted…are coming to fruition. Bell commercial helicopter deliveries were down 24% in the quarter and, while an uptick in V-22 deliveries helped in 3Q this is now expected to halve in 4Q to meet full-year guidance for 36 shipments. Similarly, Cessna jet deliveries of 33 were materially below our forecast of 44, with the Sovereign in particular seeing a step down (quarterly deliveries have trended: 9, 7, 3). So, while bulls will no doubt point to impressive margin performance from Textron Aviation, we think that top-line pressure at both Cessna and, increasingly, Bell are of greater importance to profitability.

Just not today.

Tekmira Pharmaceuticals: More Than Just Ebola?

Tekmira (TKMR) has gained 27% this week alone, and no wonder. Its Ebola treatment is thought to be on the fast-track to approval thanks to the massive outbreak in Africa that has now reached US shores.

Getty Images

There’s more to Tekmira than Ebola, notes Maxim’s Jason Kolbert, even if it’s the company’s treatment that caused him to raise his target on the stock to $31 from $23:

Tekmira announced the achievement of a development milestone, supporting a $1.5 million payment from Monsanto (MON), following completion of specified program objectives. This work is part of the research program under the Option Agreement Tekmira signed with the agriculture company, which was announced on January 13, 2014. The Option Agreement relates to Tekmira’s proprietary delivery technology and intellectual property for use in agricultural applications. The potential value of the transaction could reach up to $86.2 million, following the successful completion of all program milestones.

This news follows the recent news of a reported case of Ebola in Texas. Tekmira continues to make progress in the development of TKM-EBOLA. On September 22, 2014 the company announced that TKM-EBOLA was cleared for emergency use on the ground in West Africa. The company announced it will join an international consortium that will establish clinical development centers in Ebola hot zones. We have accelerated our Ebola assumptions and as a result it drives additional upside, our new price target is $31.00.

Shares of Tekmira have gained 8.3% to $27.58 at 12:02 p.m., while Monsanto has dipped 0.1% to $110.09.

Saturday, January 17, 2015

8 Stocks to Buy in September

School is back in session, fall is on the way, and it's always a good time to be thinking about how to put your money to work for you in the stock market. We asked some of our top Motley Fool contributors covering technology and consumer goods stocks to weigh in on their top choice for a stock to buy in September. Check out what they had to say.

Andrés Cardenal: Priceline (NASDAQ: PCLN  ) is the growth leader in the online travel business, an exciting industry providing plenty of opportunities for growth in the long term. The company benefits from a dominant market position in international markets, which has allowed Priceline to outgrow its main rival Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE  ) over the last several years.

Priceline's Booking.com platform has consolidated a gigantic network of 525,000 hotels and other accommodations in 205 countries as of the second quarter of 2014. This represents a huge increase of 58% versus the same period in 2013, and it shows that Priceline is cementing its competitive position in the business at remarkable speed.

In addition, Priceline is expanding via partnerships and acquisitions, such as its broadened alliance with Chinese online travel company Ctrip.com and the purchase of online restaurant reservations platform OpenTable. 

Priceline produced $13.54 billion in gross bookings during the second quarter of 2014, a big annual increase of 34%. International markets provided the bulk of Priceline's business, bringing in $11.68 billion, or 86% of total gross bookings during the quarter. Because of its low-cost business model, the company generates huge profit margins in the neighborhood of 34.5% of revenue at the operating level.

In a nutshell, rapidly growing sales and sky-high profit margins look like a winning combination for investors in Priceline over the years ahead.

Rick Munarriz: Time hasn't been kind to Microsoft  (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) , and September is kicking off with larger players in the smartphone space unveiling their shiny new devices. It also doesn't help that its Xbox One continues to lose ground to the PS4. That may all be true, but have you noticed that tablet sales are starting to fade with the PC starting to mount a surprising comeback? The trend may be benefiting Chromebooks at the low end and Macs at the high end, but this is still a market dominated by Microsoft. That should become even more apparent later this month when, sources tell tech blog The Verge, Microsoft will unveil Windows 9.

It's against this retro-chic PC revival that Microsoft offers a compelling opportunity for investors. It's reasonably cheap at less than 15 times next year's projected profitability. The stock yields a respectable 2.6% with plenty of room to move higher given the software giant's low payout ratio and ample cash reserves. There's also new leadership at the helm for anyone blaming Steve Ballmer for Microsoft failing to latch on quickly to the booming smartphone and once-disruptive tablet trends. Microsoft could be the next Microsoft. 

Anders Bylund: In recent weeks, I dug into the 3 biggest reasons why American Tower (NYSE: AMT  ) shares might rise soon, and then the 3 biggest threats to the stock. One was much easier to write than the other.

Yes, the cell tower operator works in a fiercely competitive industry, and yes, its network was built on massive loans. Beyond that, I struggled to find any sincere problems with American Tower or its stock.

I'll admit that my third threat factor -- "American Tower is indeed vulnerable to some risks it cannot control" -- was kind of a stretch. Try as I might, I just couldn't do any better on the pessimistic side of the American Tower equation.

The optimistic view came so much easier. American Tower generates robust cash flows, runs a surprisingly safe and predictable business, and is grabbing international growth opportunities with both hands.

American Tower is owned or recommended by three different Motley Fool newsletters, and for all the right reasons. The stock has skyrocketed over the last year, but has room to run further over the long haul. It's rare to see the bull arguments weighing this much heavier than the bearish reasoning.

Sam Mattera: T-Mobile (NYSE: TMUS  ) stock looks like a buy going into the fall. Shares of the nation's fourth-largest wireless provider tumbled last month after Sprint (NYSE: S  ) backed out of its well-telegraphed acquisition bid, but the company remains in play.

Dish Network is said to have contacted T-Mobile's parent company -- Deutsche Telekom -- about its own potential bid. In recent years, Dish Network has been amassing wireless spectrum assets with the intention of breaking in to the wireless industry. Though it failed to acquire Sprint, Dish could still make good on its plans with an acquisition of T-Mobile. French company Iliad is also interested. Deutsche Telekom rejected Iliad's initial bid, but the company could come back with a higher offer. The interest of multiple suitors could trigger a bidding war -- it happened with Sprint last year.

While some sort of acquisition seems likely, even if T-Mobile is not acquired, the company looks to be in good hands. CEO John Legere's aggressive reforms have succeeded in shaking up the wireless industry, and T-Mobile has consistently added more subscribers than its rivals in recent quarters.

Tamara Walsh: Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) stock has enjoyed a solid run so far this year, with its stock price surging more than 25% year-to-date. However, there could be more momentum ahead for shares of Apple following the iDevice maker's product refresh this week. At a media event on Tuesday the tech giant unveiled two new, larger iPhone models, as well as a smartwatch and payments platform called Apple Pay. Apple already has the payment information for around 800 million iTunes and App Store customers. Therefore, this move puts Apple in an advantageous position to capitalize on the growing mobile payments market. Meanwhile, the wearable smart watch device marks the first new product category for Apple in about four years.

While all of this is certainly exciting for Apple fans, the tech giant has more going for it than a fresh product pipeline. For starters, shares of Apple look attractive with a price-to-earnings-growth ratio, or PEG, of 1.33, which is below the industry average of 2.26. Even after the recent run up in the stock, shares still trade at a forward P/E of just 13 times next year's earnings.

Another reason to own Apple shares is that the stock pays an annual dividend of $1.88 per share, which works out to a yield of 1.9% at Tuesday's closing share price. Not to mention, investors can rest easy knowing Apple will be able to increase its dividend for many years to come thanks to the company's cash-heavy balance sheet and light long-term debt load. This, paired with Apple's new product pipeline, should be a catalyst for the stock in the months ahead. 

Steve Symington: I think now's a great time to buy Buffalo Wild Wings  (NASDAQ: BWLD  ) . The beer, wings, and sports chain regularly outperforms its casual-dining peers, and last quarter grew revenue by 20% on impressive same-store sales growth of 7.7% and 6.5% at company-owned and franchised restaurants, respectively. That led to a 43.8% jump in net earnings, but the stock plunged after its raised full-year earnings guidance just wasn't spicy enough to appease Wall Street's lofty appetite for growth.

Buffalo Wild Wings also recently added $3 million to its minority stake in PizzaRev, and subsequently announced the acquisition of a majority stake in street taco specialist Rusty Taco -- both small fast-casual chains which management insists can be expanded nationwide. Over the long term, this will help Buffalo Wild Wings achieve its stated goal of using a portfolio of diversified brands to nearly triple its current restaurant count to 3,000 locations worldwide. For patient investors willing to endure short-term volatility as that plan comes to fruition, the financial rewards should be more than satisfying. 

Tim Beyers: Media stocks have been rallying right alongside the rest of the market in 2014, but at least one is trading well below its short- and long-term potential. Time Warner  (NYSE: TWX  ) merits less than $77 a share as of this writing -- not even a month after Twenty-First Century Fox  (NASDAQ: FOXA  ) revealed an $85-a-share bid for the company. Just coming square with the price Rupert Murdoch was willing to pay would result in a 10% bump for today's investors.

And yet, over the longer term, Warner stock could trade for much more than it does today. Consider its assets. Unlike Disney  (NYSE: DIS  ) , which has spent years cashing in on minor Marvel Comics characters, Warner is only now leveraging lesser-known DC Comics characters such as Green Arrow and The Flash. As CEO Jeff Bewkes said during the most recent earnings call: 

Warner will have 31 shows on broadcast networks [this fall] ... five of those shows are based on IP from DC Entertainment, including the highly anticipated Gotham on Fox, The Flash on TheCW, and Constantine on NBC. That's early evidence of Warner's ambitious plans to further mine the DC catalog across our television, film, video game, and consumer products businesses.

How quickly the bet on more obscure DC properties pays off is hard to say, but it seems highly unlikely that Warner will continue trading for less than half of Disney's market cap. 

Ashraf Eassa: Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM  ) is looking pretty good to me. Given the enormous capital requirements associated with owning and operating chip manufacturing plants, many companies choose to outsource the production of their designs to third parties.

Taiwan Semiconductor is by far the largest such manufacturer, according to IC Insights, generating nearly five times the revenue of its closest peer .

It has been widely rumored that Taiwan Semiconductor will build Apple's A8 processor found inside the just-released iPhone 6 and 6 Plus smartphones (historically Apple's A-series processors have been built by Samsung).

While teardowns of the chip have yet to officially confirm this, it's probably not a coincidence that Taiwan Semiconductor just reported a 25.8% increase in its sales year-over-year for the month of August – the highest year-over-year growth it has reported this year.

That said, recent statements from Taiwan Semiconductor regarding its competitive positioning during 2015 have investors worried that it could lose share next year.

While only time will tell how share shifts in this market, and while competitive threats shouldn't be dismissed, the company should benefit nicely from the new iPhone ramp. And, as long as the overall market for semiconductors remains robust, Taiwan Semiconductor should continue to thrive.

Fools know it pays to watch legendary stock pickers. Check out why Warren Buffett thinks this new technology is a "real threat"
At the recent Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, Warren Buffett admitted this emerging technology is threatening his biggest cash-cow. While Buffett shakes in his billionaire-boots, only a few investors are embracing this new market which experts say will be worth over $2 trillion. Find out how you can cash in on this technology before the crowd catches on, by jumping onto one company that could get you the biggest piece of the action. Click here to access a FREE investor alert on the company we're calling the "brains behind" the technology.

Thursday, January 15, 2015

DOL Fiduciary Rule in 2016?

It’s been in the works for years, but it may be 2016 before a new fiduciary rule is in effect, and even that’s a bit of a long shot.

“In 2016, we run into an election year,” which means it’s less likely that the political environment will allow regulators to push through one of the more wildly contentious changes in ERISA in years, Groom Law Group Chairman Steve Saxon said Monday at a presentation at the 2014 Society of Professional Asset-Managers and Record Keepers (SPARK) meeting.

Pressure from broker-dealers and others in the financial advice business has helped to stymie the Department of Labor’s efforts to push through changes in how to define a fiduciary.

“The DOL said it has been put off until January 2015. But after talking to a lot of folks, you have to wonder whether it’ll get done by then or even at all,” Saxon said.

Labor announced in late May that it will re-propose the rule in January 2015, well after November's midterm elections.

Labor Secretary Thomas Perez told a Senate Appropriations subcommittee in mid-April that the redrafting of the fiduciary proposal “has been slowed down at my direction significantly because we wanted to take a step back [to] listen and learn from everyone.”

“But if it takes six months to get through a comment period,” Saxon said Monday, “and then another six months of hearings, we’re running into an election year (in 2016) and the question is, do we want to do this in an election year?”

Labor Assistant Secretary Phyllis Borzi, who heads the Employee Benefits Security Administration, has been pushing for a new fiduciary standard since 2010, asserting that advisors who work on a commission model have "conflicts of interest" that inherently hurt consumers.  

Among other issues in the DOL’s sights: arrangements known as revenue sharing, where mutual fund companies share a portion of their revenue with the brokerage firm selling the fund.

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, known as Sifma, which represents large Wall Street firms, and the Financial Services Institute, which includes smaller independent advisers, have mounted fierce opposition to the change, saying the new rules would upset the way they get paid and make it difficult for them to serve smaller investors.

Consultancy Oliver Wyman estimated in 2011 that the rule could increase costs by 75% to 195%. And an April study commissioned by the industry and conducted by Quantria Strategies noted the rule would particularly hurt low-income African-Americans and Hispanics.

Saxon said the big question ahead for regulators may simply be whether any change in the law is necessary.

“A lot is in play,” he noted. “A lot of folks – brokers, insurance agents, bankers, RIAs – already believe they need to be fiduciaries to give advice in this space.”

For them, any change in the law may not make much difference. But it undoubtedly will for the nation’s tens of thousands of broker-dealers.

---

Related on ThinkAdvisor:

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

Delafield, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- There isn't a day that goes by on Wall Street when certain stocks trading for $10 a share or less don't experience massive spikes higher. Traders savvy enough to follow the low-priced names and trade them with discipline and sound risk management are banking ridiculous coin on a regular basis.

>>5 Big Stocks to Trade for Flat-Market Gains

Just take a look at some of the big movers in the under-$10 complex from Thursday, including Atossa Genetics (ATOS), which is exploding higher by 76%; Royale Energy (ROYL), which is soaring higher by 30%; Lucas Energy (LEI), which is trending to the upside by 25%; and Helios and Matheson Analytics (HMNY), which is ripping higher by 23%. You don't even have to catch the entire move in lower-priced stocks such as these to make outsized returns when trading.

Low-priced stocks are something that I tweet about on a regular basis. I frequently flag high-probability setups, breakout candidates and low-priced stocks that are acting technically bullish. I like to hunt for low-priced stocks that are showing bullish price and volume trends, since that increases the probability of those stocks heading higher. These setups often produce monster moves higher in very short time frames.

>>5 Dividend Stocks Ready to Pay You More in 2014

When I trade under-$10 names, I do it almost entirely based off of the charts and technical analysis. I also like to find under-$10 names with a catalyst, but that's secondary to the chart and volume patterns.

With that in mind, here's a look at several under-$10 stocks that look poised to potentially trade higher from current levels.

ArQule


One under-$10 biotechnology player that's starting to trend within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade is ArQule (ARQL), which researches and develops cancer therapeutics. This stock has been hit hard so far in 2014, with shares down sharply by 32%.

>>3 Stocks Spiking on Big Volume

If you glance at the chart for ArQule, you'll notice that this stock this stock has been downtrending badly for the last four months, with shares moving lower from its high of $2.92 to its recent 52-week low of $1.38 a share. During that downtrend, shares of ARQL have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of ARQL have now started to rebound off that $1.38 low and it's now starting to move within range of triggering near-term breakout trade.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ARQL if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance at $1.55 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that registers near or above its three-month average action of 340,469 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then ARQL will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $1.66 to its 50-day moving average of $1.77 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give ARQL a chance to tag its next major overhead resistance levels at $2 to $2.20 a share.

Traders can look to buy ARQL off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right around its 50-day moving average of $5.97 a share. One can also buy ADMP off strength once it starts to take out those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

Geron


Another under-$10 biotechnology player that's starting to spike within range of triggering a major breakout trade is Geron (GERN), which develops a telomerase inhibitor, imetelstat, to treat hematologic myeloid malignancies. This stock has been slammed lower by the bears so far in 2014, with shares off sharply by 55%.

>>4 Big Stocks on Traders' Radars

If you take a look at the chart for Geron, you'll notice that this stock is spiking sharply higher today right off its 50-day moving average of $1.98 a share. Shares of GERN have been trending sideways and consolidating for the last two months, with shares moving between $1.69 on the downside and $2.53 on the upside. This spike higher today in GERN is starting to push shares within range of triggering a major breakout trade above the upper-end of its recent sideways trending chart pattern.

Market players should now look for long-biased trades in GERN if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $2.14 to $2.29 a share and then once it takes out more key overhead resistance at $2.53 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that registers near or above its three-month average action of 5.49 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then GERN will set up to re-fill some of its previous gap-down-day zone from March that started above $4.50 a share.

Traders can look to buy GERN off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below its 50-day at $1.98 or around some more key near-term support levels at $1.81 to $1.69 a share. One can also buy GERN off strength once it starts to clear those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

CytRx


One under-$10 biotechnology player that's starting to trend within range of triggering a big breakout trade is CytRx (CYTR), which operates as a biopharmaceutical research and development company specializing in oncology. This stock has been hit hard by the bears so far in 2014, with shares off sharply by 43%.

>>5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

If you take a glance at the chart for CytRx, you'll see that this stock has been uptrending over the last month and change, with shares moving higher from its low of $2.78 to its recent high of $3.68 a share. During that uptrend, shares of CYTR have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. Shares of CYTR are spiking higher today right off its 50-day moving average and that move is quickly pushing shares of CYTR within range of triggering a big breakout trade.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CYTR if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance at $3.68 a share and then once it takes out its 200-day moving average of $3.86 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that registers near or above its three-month average action of 2.21 million shares. If that breakout materializes soon, then CYTR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $4.64 to $5, or even $5.50 a share.

Traders can look to buy CYTR off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below some near-term support levels at $3.42 to $3.23 a share, or even $3.05 a share. One can also buy CYTR off strength once it starts to take out those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

ServiceSource International


Another under-$10 technology player that's starting to trend within range of triggering a major breakout trade is ServiceSource International (SREV), which provides recurring revenue management, maintenance, support and subscription for technology and technology-enabled health care and life sciences companies. This stock has been destroyed by the sellers so far in 2014, with shares down sharply by 49%.

>>A Horrible Chart to Trade for Wonderful Gains

If you look at the chart for ServiceSource International, you'll see that this stock recently gapped down sharply from over $6 a share to $3.99 a share with heavy downside volume. Following that move, shares of SREV have now formed a double bottom chart pattern at $3.99 to $3.95 a share. This stock is now starting to spike higher off those double bottom support zones and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a major breakout trade above some key overhead resistance levels.

Market players should now look for long-biased trades in SREV if it manages to break out above some key near-term overhead resistance at $4.38 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.19 million shares. If that breakout gets underway soon, then SREV will set up to re-test or possibly take out its gap-down-day high of around $5 a share. Any high-volume move above $4.38 to $5 a share will then give SREV a chance to re-fill some of that previous gap-down-day zone that started above $6 a share.

Traders can look to buy SREV off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below some key near-term support levels at $3.99 to $3.95 a share. One can also buy SREV off strength once it starts to move above those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

Xoma


One final under-$10 biotechnology player that's starting to trend within range of triggering a big breakout trade is Xoma (XOMA), which discovers and develops antibody-based therapeutics in the U.S., Europe and the Asia Pacific. This stock has been destroyed by the sellers so far in 2014, with shares down by well over 50%.

If you take a glance at the chart for XOMA, you'll notice that this stock has been downtrending badly for the last three months, with shares plunging lower from its high of $9.57 to its recent low of $3.42 a share. During that downtrend, shares of XOMA have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of XOMA have now formed a double bottom chart pattern at $3.42 to $3.47 a share. Following that bottom, shares of XOMA have now started to rebound higher and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a big breakout trade.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in XOMA if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance at $4 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 2.64 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then XOMA will set up re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels $4.69 to $4.85 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give XOMA a chance to tag its 200-day moving average of $5.45 a share to possible even $6 to $6.50 a share.

Traders can look to buy XOMA off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right around those double bottom support levels at $3.47 to $3.42 a share. One can also buy XOMA off strength once it starts to take out those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

To see more hot under-$10 equities, check out the Stocks Under $10 Setting Up to Explode portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love



>>5 Airline Stocks to Trade for Flyaway Gains



>>5 Stocks Under $10 Making Big Moves

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Monday, January 12, 2015

U.S. stocks tumble on ISM data; Dow down 200 points

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks deepened losses on Monday after a weaker-than-expected reading on manufacturing data added to the downbeat mood, with investors already shaken by concerns over a slowdown in China.

U.S. manufacturers expanded in January at the slowest rate in eight months as the pace of new orders sharply decelerated, according to the closely followed ISM index. The Institute for Supply Management index sank to 51.3% from 56.5% in December. That's the lowest level since last May. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the index to drop to 56%. Read: How reliable are ISM reports?

TRADING STRATEGIES: february
Terrence Horan/MarketWatch • See full Trading Strategies report /conga/story/2014/02/trading-strategies.html 295496

The S&P 500 index (SPX)  was down 27 points, or 1.5%, at 1,755.29, falling below the key level resistance level of 1,775. Market technicians watch this level closely, as closing below it would trigger heavy selling by algorithmic programs, which comprise about 40% of the market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)  fell 216.65 points, or 1.4%, to 15,484.48. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP)  shed 73.40 points, or 1.8%, to 4,030.54. Follow our stock market live blog .

"The headline numbers from the ISM data were much weaker than expected and it would be interesting to see just how much of it is due to bad weather," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial.

"Investors will be watching the employment data on Friday very keenly, to see if there is a confirmation that we are somehow entering a soft patch. As the Fed continues with the tapering, the markets once again react to bad news negatively and are recalibrating valuations to economic data and earnings," Krosby said.

The main indexes ended January with the steepest losses in more than a year, as disappointing data from China, which triggered selloffs in emerging-markets currencies over the past two weeks, and worries over deflation in the euro zone forced investors to flee equity markets and seek safer assets.

The implied volatility as measured by the CBOE Vix index, which moves inversely to the S&P 500, jumped 8.8% to nearly 20, the level not seen since October.

Less-than-stellar earnings results from corporations did little to alleviate fears among investors.

Shares of Jos. A. Bank Clothiers Inc. (JOSB)   fell 3.7% after The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that the company is in talks to buy fellow apparel retailer Eddie Bauer, citing sources. Jos. A. Bank and Men's Wearhouse Inc. (MW)  have been locked in a monthslong battle to buy each other out. Shares in Men's Wearhouse slid 6.2%.

Herbalife Ltd. (HLF)  shares initially rose after the company said it plans to offer $1 billion of convertible notes and use the proceeds to buy back shares. However, shares fell 2.4%.

Getty Images Enlarge Image Ford shares fall after the car maker reports a drop in sales.

Ford Motor Co. (F) shares fell 3.1% after the car maker reported a 7% drop in January sales. General Motors Co. (GM)  reported that its U.S. sales in January fell 12%, more than expected by analysts. The stock fell 1%.

In other markets, the Nikkei Stock Average (JP:NIK)  fell 2.4%, putting it in a technical correction as it closed at 14,619.13, which is just 10% off from a Dec. 30 high of 16,291.

European stocks markets moved lower on Monday, mirroring a negative mood in Asia, after Chinese manufacturing data added to fears about a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. The dollar (DXY)  was mostly lower, and oil was flat, while gold (GCH4)  rose.

More stories from MarketWatch:

6 easy ways to lose money in stocks

Treasurys rally on weak manufacturing data

'Stormy' January jobs report tough to figure

Walt Disney: A Sustainable Business Model

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) has been charming children's hearts for decades, with its world-famous characters. And although today's youngest generation still enjoys the classics, tastes have changed. Yet this company has been highly successful in adapting its movies and entertainment strategy to modern day standards. Today, the firm has established itself as a globally recognized brand, with a diversified income strategy and a wide economic moat. But will this entertainment factory remain a win-win investment in the future?

Diversity to Reduce Risk

One of Walt Disney Co.'s key strengths is its diverse portfolio of renowned brands, the likes of which include ESPN, ABC, Walt Disney, Marvel Entertainment, Touchstone Pictures and Lucasfilms. In addition to this, the firm own a 42% stake in A&E, The History Channel and Lifetime Networks. These television networks and movie studios have laid the groundwork for the company's live-action and animated film production, but have also helped achieve a strong and steadily growing revenue stream. And with over half of all profits deriving from the entertainment networks, these brands are considered the company's backbone.

In this scenario, one of the key players is 24-hour domestic sports cable channel ESPN, along with ESPN2 and its sister channels. The popular sports channel reels in 75% of cable network sales at Walt Disney Co., due to its large viewer base of 100 million U.S. households. Also, ESPN benefits from a dual income stream, defined by advertising dollars and affiliate fees, leaving it at a competitive advantage over other broadcast networks that rely solely on ads.

Nevertheless, ESPN isn't all that Walt Disney Co. has to offer. In 2013 the company entered into content distribution agreements for its television series and movies. The deals with Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), Netflix Inc. (NFLX) and Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR) are meant to help strengthen the firm's multi-channel subscription model by increasing the platforms for content delivery. Additionally, this strategy will balance future revenue losses in the DVD segment, as a consequence of the cheaper viewing alternatives.

Theme Parks and Overseas Expansion

Walt Disney Co. undoubtedly has a talent for monetizing its characters and franchises across multiple platforms, but its theme parks are the crown jewel. These are an especially attractive and unique segment in the company's assets, mainly because they are almost impossible to replicate. The Parks and Resorts division accounts for 25% of operating profits and after the 2009 crisis, revenues have been recovering at a fast pace. During the last quarter of 2013, revenue in this segment experienced an 8.5% increase, while operating income marked a 15% rise. In fact, the company is focused on further deploying its capital towards the expansion of the Parks and Resorts business, thereby creating new growth opportunities.

Looking forward, Walt Disney Co. is aiming to expand its operations overseas, in the emerging nations China, Russia and India. The Shanghai Disney Resort, for example, will contain a Shanghai Disneyland, two themed hotels and a retail, dining and entertainment venue, and is set to be China's largest theme park by 2015. Despite possible unfavourable foreign currency translations, this firm should be able to sustain its growth given its multiple revenue sources. Furthermore, the entertainment giant has been highly successful at managing its cash flow, returning large sums of its free cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases. The 71.3 million repurchased shares in fiscal 2013, worth close to $4.1 billion, are expected to increase in 2014 and will range between $6 and $8 billion in returns.

Despite the risks of the economy deteriorating and primetime ratings fall, which could affect advertising dollars and revenue generating capabilities, I remain highly bullish about Walt Disney Co.'s future. The dual business model of theme parks and television networks, have contributed to a steady 40% revenue growth over the past decade, leading to a sum total of $45 billion in 2013. With a 20.50% operating margin and trading at a price premium of merely 14% compared to the industry's average, I believe this company has a bright future. Investment guru Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio) also put his trust in Walt Disney, as he recently acquired nearly 200,000 company shares.           

 

Disclosure: Patricio Kehoe holds no position in any stocks mentioned.


Currently 4.33/512345

Rating: 4.3/5 (3 votes)

Email FeedsSubscribe via Email RSS FeedsSubscribe RSS Comments Please leave your comment:
More GuruFocus Links
Latest Guru Picks Value Strategies
Warren Buffett Portfolio Ben Graham Net-Net
Real Time Picks Buffett-Munger Screener
Aggregated Portfolio Undervalued Predictable
ETFs, Options Low P/S Companies
Insider Trends 10-Year Financials
52-Week Lows Interactive Charts
Model Portfolios DCF Calculator
RSS Feed Monthly Newsletters
The All-In-One Screener Portfolio Tracking Tool
MORE GURUFOCUS LINKS
Latest Guru Picks Value Strategies
Warren Buffett Portfolio Ben Graham Net-Net
Real Time Picks Buffett-Munger Screener
Aggregated Portfolio Undervalued Predictable
ETFs, Options Low P/S Companies
Insider Trends 10-Year Financials
52-Week Lows Interactive Charts
Model Portfolios DCF Calculator
RSS Feed Monthly Newsletters
The All-In-One Screener Portfolio Tracking Tool
DIS STOCK PRICE CHART 73.27 (1y: +45%) $(function() { var seriesOptions = [], yAxisOptions = [], name = 'DIS', display = ''; Highcharts.setOptions({ global: { useUTC: true } }); var d = new Date(); $current_day = d.getDay(); if ($current_day == 5 || $current_day == 0 || $current_day == 6){ day = 4; } else{ day = 7; } seriesOptions[0] = { id : name, animation:false, color: '#4572A7', lineWidth: 1, name : name.toUpperCase() + ' stock price', threshold : null, data : [[1358143200000,50.59],[1358229600000,51.09],[1358316000000,51.53],[1358402400000,52.41],[1358488800000,52.34],[1358834400000,52.73],[1358920800000,53.95],[1359007200000,53.95],[1359093600000,54.38],[1359352800000,54.36],[1359439200000,53.99],[1359525600000,53.79],[1359612000000,53.88],[1359698400000,54.59],[1359957600000,53.9],[1360044000000,54.29],[1360130400000,54.52],[1360216800000,54.36],[1360303200000,54.66],[1360562400000,54.75],[1360648800000,54.95],[1360735200000,54.96],[1360821600000,54.88],[1360908000000,55.61],[1361253600000,55.73],[1361340000000,54.6],[1361426400000,54.17],[1361512800000,54.25],[1361772000000,53.59],[1361858400000,53.9],[1361944800000,54.48],[1362031200000,54.59],[1362117600000,55.33],[1362376800000,55.8],[1362463200000,56.48],[1362549600000,56.36],[1362636000000,56.32],[1362722400000,57.39],[1362978000000,57.66],[1363064400000,57.11],[1363150800000,57.34],[1363237200000,57.75],[1363323600000,57.58],[1363582800000,56.83],[1363669200000,56.31],[1363755600000,56.94],[1363842000000,56.31],[1363928400000,56.78],[1364187600000,56.21],[1364274000000,56.63],[1364360400000,56.47],[1364446800000,56.8],[1364792400000,56.69],[1364878800000,57.46],[1364965200000,57.25],[1365051600000,57.59],[1365138000000,57.7],[1365397200000,58.82],[1365483600000,59.14],[1365570000000,60.11],[1365656400000,60.55],[1365742800000,60.55],[1366002000000,58.88],[1366088400000,60.75],[1366174800000,60.68],[1366261200000,59.99],[1366347600000,61.56],[1366606800000,62.01],[1366693200000,62.59],[1366779600000,61.94],[1366866000000,62],[1366952400000,61.87],[1367211600000,63],[1367298000000,62.84],[1367384400000,63.21],[1367470800000,63.88],[1367557200000,64.8],[1367816400000,65.06],[1367902800000,66.07],[1367989200000,65.99],[1368075600000,66.67],[1368162000000,67.2],[1368421200000,67.32],[1368507600000,67.47],[1368594000000,67.67],[1368680400000,66.47],[1368766800000,66.58],[1369026000000,66.12],[1369112400000,65.83],[1369198800000,65.57],[1369285200000,65.23],[1369371600000,65.49],[1369717200000,66.69],[1! 369803600000,66.26],[1369890000000,64.65],[1369976400000,63.08],[1370235600000,63.8],[1370322000000,64.35],[1370408400000,63.12],[1370494800000,63.14],[1370581

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Weekend Edition – Know and Respect Your Risk Tolerance

It’s easy to get caught up in bullish euphoria – hardly anyone with skin in the game can resist having a grin on their face as major equity indexes continue to add to their hefty 25% year-to-date gains. If your portfolio has soared over the past year, you are likely debating whether or not you need to lock-in profits or let your winners run in an effort to avoid missing the “next leg” of this rally.

Why Did You Buy the Stock to Begin With?

If you have a position that has gained over 50% since you bought in, you’re probably tempted to take some profits off the table. That’s probably a prudent idea. However, if you find yourself very tempted to hold onto that position you need to remind yourself of why you bought the stock in the first place. If you bought XYZ stock on a whim last year and you’re sitting on a hefty profit, then you’re probably best off locking in gains and leaving just a few shares to ride this bull higher.

On the other hand, if you had done your research and waited to get into the stock when it was “priced right for you,” then you might be better off taking a smaller profit off the table and leaving the majority of your position untouched. If you had conviction to invest in XYZ for the long-haul, then you shouldn’

Friday, January 9, 2015

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Q3 Earnings Preview: What To Watch?

Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) is expected to announce its third-quarter 2013 financial results on Oct. 16, 2013. The announcement will be followed by a live webcast of the earnings conference call at 8 a.m. Central time (9 a.m. Eastern).

The quarterly results come at a time when investors are wondering whether Abbott was correct in spinning off its strong drug business into a entity called AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV).

These concerns make sense as the remaining businesses of Abbott, including devices, diagnostics, generics and nutrition businesses, has struggled to post solid revenue growth.

Wall Street expects Abbott to earn 51 cents a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. The consensus estimate implies an increase of 21.4 percent from 42 cents a share in the same quarter last year.

Abbott earnings have topped Street view twice in the past four quarters. Analysts have a modestly bearish opinion on the company earnings as the consensus view declined by 2 cents in the past 90 days when the estimate was 53 cents. Two analysts have cut their earnings view in the last 30 days.

Quarterly revenue is expected to fall 44.7 percent to $5.4 billion from $9.77 billion in the same quarter last year. This significant drop and underscores investor concerns over the performance of current businesses.

With 2013 being a back-end-loaded year for Abbott, incremental information that eases concerns regarding the ramp will be hot topics for the third quarter, including a focus on China (particularly associated with the pediatric segment).

In August, Chinese officials have fined Abbott and recalled some of its infant-formula products over concerns about botulism. The company also faced questions about its pricing structures in China.

Investors could also focus on the acceleration in the growth rate of the Established Pharmaceuticals franchise, and gross margin expansion.

"Other hot topics may include the impact to its Nutritional franchise given lapping dis! tributor changes in China and Vietnam, and the opening of three local manufacturing facilities in China, India, and US (on track to come online at the end of 2013 or early-2014)," BMO Capital Markets analyst Joanne Wuensch wrote in a note to clients.

Meanwhile, updates over the integration of the IDEV Technologies and OptiMedica acquisitions into the Medical Device franchise would be closely watched. The health of the drug-eluting stent (DES) market would also be the focus points as the company should begin to benefit from what seems to be a stabilizing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) volumes,

The company's largest segment – devices business-- continues to underperform posting flat numbers in the July quarter while peer Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) grew its devices business by more than 10 percent. In addition, foreign exchange impact on revenue is another focus point.

"In Diagnostics, we look for continued momentum in the segment, given progress on the launch of new technologies (e.g., Accelerator a3600), penetration into physician office labs, while continuing to leverage new tenders, geographic expansion, and growth in infectious disease testing," Wuensch said.

Investors will watch how the company wants to move forward strategically, and management's outlook for the rest of the year as the topline is expected to drop 47 percent and 45 percent for the fourth quarter and full year 2013. For fiscal 2013, Abbott sees ongoing earnings in a range of $1.98 to $2.04 per share.

For the second quarter, Abbott's net earnings were $476 million or 30 cents a share, down sharply from $1.73 billion or $1.08 per share in the prior-year period. Excluding specified items, adjusted earnings from continuing operations were $724 million or 46 cents a share.

Net sales for the quarter grew 3 percent to $5.45 billion from $5.31 billion in the year-ago period, but include an unfavorable 1.7 percent effect of foreign exchange. This was primarily driven by the further weakenin! g of the ! Japanese yen versus the U.S. dollar.

Shares of ABT have pulled back and stagnated amid concerns regarding China, combined with a back-end-loaded year. Since the second quarter report, ABT shares fell 5 percent. In the past 52-weeks, they traded between $30.05 and $38.77.

Apple Suffers a Downgrade on Uncertainty (AAPL)

Apple (AAPL) may have reported record sales with its latest iPhone device today, but that did not stop Societe Generale from downgrading the stock.

An analyst with Societe Generale moved Apple’s stock to a “Hold” from a “Buy,” though the analyst still maintained a price target of $500. It was noted that while sales for the newest device have been strong, margins may be set to decline in the coming months. It was noted that this downgrade was based on the very near term.

Should demand for the new Apple devices stay strong, the company may very well be able to maintain or increase margins, especially with the Chinese market opening up.

Apple’s stock cared little of the downgrade as it soared more than $23.23, or 4.73%, by Monday’s close. The stock is still down over 7% this year.

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Look to diversify in times of financial turmoil: Roongta

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Roongta advices investors to bet on funds that invest in equities, debt and commodities as well. "Track the fund over a period of time and take a call accordingly after two years," he added.

However, he adds that if one's time horizon is limited, they should look at safer investments like recurring deposits or post office savings.

Below is an edited transcript of his interview. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: Investor is a student who wants to invest Rs 3000 per month to earn Rs 1 lakh at the end of two years. How should he allocate his money?

A: He is the only earning member and has three dependents, and considering the time horizon that he has which is only about two years from now, equity would not be an appropriate asset class for him.

I am going to suggest him to invest the entire Rs 3000 into recurring deposit with his existing bank or he could approach a local post office. The corpus that he will accumulate after two years is about Rs 75,000-80,000. Going in for equity at this juncture may not be appropriate for him. So he should invest into safe investments because the time horizon is two years by choosing a recurring with his bank or a post office.

Q: Investor can invest Rs 4000 per month, how should he allocate his money?

A: He has a time horizon of five years and he wants to accumulate a corpus of Rs 15 lakhs in five years. The first thing is with an investment of Rs 4000 per month over a period of five years, Rs 15 lakh cannot be accumulated. Even if we were to assume a 14% CAGR, the corpus that I see him accumulating is about Rs 3.5 lakh. But never the less, it's a good habit to start early, it's a good habit to form which is to save and invest for a targeted goal. So he can start with whatever he has in hand today.

Given the turmoil in the equity markets, both domestically as well as the situation globally, I would recommend him to invest on Axis Triple Advantage Fund . He can choose a growth option. Now this fund has a mandate to invest equally between equity, debt and gold. So if this is his only investment to begin with, he can choose this fund and then track it over a period of time and take a call accordingly after two years from now.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

An ETF That Hedges Against Currency Swings

Although foreign stocks are important for diversifying your portfolio, currency swings can affect their performance. For instance, Americans who invest in Japanese shares when the dollar is weakening relative to the yen will see a boost in returns because investments in yen get translated into more greenbacks. But when the dollar is strengthening, as it has been recently, U.S.–based investors are likely to see their returns diminish. They may think it's time to get out of Dodge (or Toyota, as it were).

See Also: 5 Great ETFs for 2015

Another solution: Take currency out of the equation. That is the goal of Deutsche X-trackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity (DBEF). The exchange-traded fund tracks the foreign-stock MSCI EAFE index but uses futures contracts to neutralize the impact of currency fluctuations.

With currency moves off the table, the ETF's return is driven solely by the performance of its stock holdings. "You're investing like a local," says Deutsche ETF strategy head Dodd Kittsley. Over the past year, Hedged Equity has licked iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA), which doesn't hedge, by 8.6 percentage points.

Not surprisingly, investors are flocking to currency-hedged funds. Assets in the Deutsche ETF have more than quintupled over the past year, to $1.3 billion. Just keep in mind that if currency trends reverse course, you may regret owning a fund that doesn't benefit from a drop in the buck.

Deutsche X-Trackers graphic